1. Current Status of China’s Peanut Industry Supply and Demand: Challenges and Resilience of the World’s Leading Producer and Consumer
China is the absolute leader in global peanut production and consumption. According to data from 2023, China’s annual peanut production reached 18.3 million tons (accounting for 40% of global production), and consumption reached 17.5 million tons, both ranking first in the world. However, despite being a “major producer” and “industry powerhouse,” structural problems still need to be addressed.
1.1 Production Side: Scale Advantage vs. Efficiency Bottlenecks
- Geographic Concentration: The core production areas are concentrated in Henan (35%), Shandong (28%), and Hebei (12%), but issues such as crop rotation barriers (e.g., the high incidence of southern blight) have led to a decline in yield in some regions.
- Yield Disparities: In 2023, Henan’s high-yield fields reached 400 kg per mu, while the hilly regions of Northeast China produced only 220 kg, lower than the global average (270 kg).
- Insufficient Mechanization: The mechanization rate for sowing and harvesting is only 65% and 55%, respectively, and labor costs account for over 40% of total costs (compared to less than 20% in the United States).
1.2 Consumption Side: Structural Upgrading and Wastage Issues
- Consumption Structure: 55% of peanuts are used for oil extraction (annual consumption of 9.6 million tons), 25% for direct consumption, 15% for food processing, and 5% for exports.
- Health Transition: The demand for low-fat, high-protein varieties (e.g., “Yuhua 37”) is growing by 12% annually, but small and medium-sized oil mills still rely on traditional high-oil acid varieties.
- Loss Issues: Due to outdated storage technology (farmers store 60% of peanuts), mold loss is approximately 8% annually (150,000 tons), and the risk of aflatoxin contamination restricts exports.
1.3 Trade Side: Diminishing Export Advantage and Import Substitution Concerns
- Declining Exports: In 2023, peanut exports reached 480,000 tons (a 31% decrease from 2018), mainly due to international competition (India, Argentina’s low-price impact) and quality barriers (EU aflatoxin standards ≤ 4 ppb, while some domestic regions exceed 8-12 ppb).
- Surge in Imports: The import volume of high-oleic peanuts from the U.S. has increased fivefold over the past five years (reaching 150,000 tons in 2023), capturing the high-end food processing market.
2. Core Trends for the Next Decade: Five Driving Forces Reshaping the Industry Landscape
2.1 Production Mode Innovation: From “Weather-dependent” to “Smart Agriculture”
- Variety Revolution:
- Disease-resistant varieties (e.g., “Zhonghua 215,” resistant to southern blight) will see a promotion rate increase from 30% to 70%.
- Special-purpose varieties (high oleic, high protein) will reach a coverage rate of over 50%.
- Smart Agricultural Technology:
- Using drones for variable-rate fertilization (reducing fertilizer use by 15%) and satellite-based drought early warning systems will exceed 60%.
- The mechanization rate across the entire industry chain will increase to 85%, reducing dependence on human labor.
2.2 Consumption Upgrade: From “Oil Bottles” to “Health Food Banks”
- Decrease in Edible Oil Share: The proportion of peanuts used for oil extraction will drop from 55% to 45%, with more shifting to high-value products:
- Plant-based Proteins: Peanuts will be used in plant-based meat applications, with peanut protein powder (PDCAAS=0.8, comparable to soy) reaching 500,000 tons annually.
- Functional Snacks: Low-salt roasted peanuts and probiotic-coated peanuts will grow at an annual rate of over 20%.
- Emerging Consumption Scenarios:
- Peanut butter coffee, peanut-based yogurt, and other crossover products will capture the Generation Z market.
- The development of medicinal and edible dual-purpose products (e.g., peanut red skin blood supplement capsules) will unlock a billion-dollar health supplement market.
2.3 International Trade Rebalancing: From “Low-price Exports” to “Quality Competition”
- Upgrading Export Structure: The export share of shelled peanuts will decrease from 80% to 50%, while the share of deep-processed products (peanut butter, flavored peanuts) will increase to 40%.
- Accelerated Import Substitution: The self-sufficiency rate of high-oleic peanuts will rise from 20% to 60%, breaking the U.S. monopoly.
- Regional Agreement Dividends: Within the RCEP framework, Southeast Asia’s export tariffs will be reduced, and by 2030, ASEAN may become the largest export destination, replacing the EU’s current 35% share.
2.4 Technological Empowerment of the Industry Chain: From “Extensive Processing” to “Full-chain Value Addition”
- Green Processing Technology:
- Low-temperature pressing preserves vitamin E (residual oil rate ≤ 5%, vitamin E loss rate < 10%).
- Supercritical CO₂ extraction for peanut red skin polyphenols (purity ≥ 95%), replacing chemical extraction.
- Digital Management:
- Blockchain traceability systems will cover 80% of large-scale enterprises, ensuring complete transparency from “planting-processing-retail.”
- AI quality control (e.g., aflatoxin spectral detection) will reduce raw material loss rates from 8% to 3%.
2.5 Sustainable Development: From “Resource Consumption” to “Circular Economy”
- High-Value Utilization of By-products:
- Peanut shells → biochar (carbon sequestration 0.3 tons CO₂/ton shell) + activated carbon (output value of 5,000 yuan/ton).
- Oil cakes → protein feed (substitute for soybean meal, reducing costs by 30%).
- Carbon Neutral Pathways:
- Promotion of peanut-corn crop rotation (reducing N₂O emissions by 20%).
- Solar coverage in processing plants is≥ 50%, reducing the carbon footprint of products by 40%.
3. 2033 Supply and Demand Forecast: Simultaneous Increase in Quantity, Quality, and Structural Transformation
3.1 Production Forecast
- Planting area will remain stable at 46 million mu (due to red line protection policies), with yield per mu increasing to 320 kg, resulting in a total production of 14.7 million tons (a 20% increase from 2023).
3.2 Consumption Forecast
- Total consumption will exceed 20 million tons, with a significant structural shift:
- Edible oil share drops to 40% (8 million tons).
- Food processing (including plant-based proteins) increases to 35% (7 million tons).
- Direct consumption rises to 25% (5 million tons).
3.3 Trade Forecast
- Exports will recover to 800,000 tons (60% deep-processed products), while imports will be controlled below 200,000 tons, leading to an expanded trade surplus.
4. Policy Recommendations: Building a High-Quality Development Support System
4.1 Science and Technology R\&D: Establish national-level laboratories for peanut biotechnology and intelligent agricultural machinery.
4.2 Full-Chain Standards: Develop a “Peanut Full Industry Chain Quality and Safety Standard” that aligns with international standards (e.g., CODEX).
4.3 Industry Cluster Construction: Build the Henan-Shandong “World Peanut Capital,” integrating planting, processing, research, and trade elements.
4.4 Financial Empowerment: Promote “Peanut Income Insurance” and develop green credit to support technological upgrades.
Future Outlook
In the next decade, China’s peanut industry will transform from “scale expansion” to “value leap.” Through various innovations, technological empowerment, consumption upgrades, and green transformation, peanuts will serve as a cornerstone of the country’s oil security and become a key pillar of rural revitalization and the “Healthy China” strategy. On this field where ancient crops meet modern technology, a quiet agricultural revolution is brewing—its ultimate goal is to unlock the maximum value of every peanut.
